Alaska Governor
73%
Dem
27%GOP
27% GOP, by candidate
- Bernadette Wilson26%
- David Bronson1%
- Treg Taylor<1%
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +4.6·80% of simulations: R +5.6 to D +15.0
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +14.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +10.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +1.7
Forecasted margin
D +4.6
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | Oct 1, 2026 | D +3 | 431 | lv |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | Sep 11, 2026 | D +10 | 600 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 73%
GOP 27%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+13 This state leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Republican Bernadette Wilson
Republican David Bronson
Republican Treg Taylor
- Notes
- Ranked-choice voting
- Seat context
- Open seat: Mike Dunleavy is term-limited.