Oklahoma's 1st Congressional District
96%
GOP
4%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +18.6·80% of simulations: R +31.9 to R +5.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +19.8
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.0
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.4
Forecasted margin
R +18.6
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 4%
GOP 96%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+22 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat John Croisant
Republican Mark Tedford