Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District
90%
GOP
10%Dem
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +16.3·80% of simulations: R +32.9 to D +0.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +16.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.4
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +16.3
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 10%
GOP 90%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+18 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jena Nelson
Republican Stephanie Bice (inc.)