Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District

96%

GOP

4%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R+14.480% of simulations: R+24.7 to R+4.2

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R+16.1

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R+7.6

National Environment

current political climate

D+7.6

Polls

recent state and district polling

D+1.7

Forecasted margin

R+14.4

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	Population
GBAO Jena NelsonDemocratic	Sep 20, 2026	R+5	LV

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 4%

GOP 96%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

PVI

R+18 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Jena Nelson

Republican Stephanie Bice (inc.)