Oklahoma Governor

99%

GOP

1%Dem

Solid R

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +25.7·80% of simulations: R +37.0 to R +14.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the state votes compared with the nation

R +38.2

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

D +7.0

National Environment

current political climate

D +4.5

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +1.0

Forecasted margin

R +25.7

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

No statewide polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 1%

GOP 99%

Race Details

State lean

R+35 This is a safe Republican state.

Candidates

Democrat Cyndi Munson

Republican Mike Mazzei

Seat context

Open seat: Kevin Stitt is term-limited.