Oregon's 4th Congressional District
94%
Dem
6%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +19.2·80% of simulations: D +3.9 to D +34.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +11.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +0.2
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.8
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +19.2
What Changes the Forecast
Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 94%
GOP 6%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+12 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Valerie Hoyle (inc.)
Republican Monique Despain