Oregon's 4th Congressional District
95%
Dem
5%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D+11.2
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R+0.6
National Environment
current political climate
D+9.2
Polls
polling in similar districts
Even
Forecasted margin
D+19.8
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 95%
GOP 5%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- PVI
- D+12 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Val Hoyle (inc.)
Republican Monique Despain