Oregon Governor
66%
Dem
34%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +2.6·80% of simulations: R +5.8 to D +11.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D +12.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +13.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +5.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +2.2
Forecasted margin
D +2.6
What Changes the Forecast
The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.
Polls
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | Oct 4, 2026 | D +4 | 800 | lv |
| DHM Research | Oct 1, 2026 | D +2 | 549 | lv |
| DHM Research | Sep 27, 2026 | R +1 | 915 | lv |
| DHM Research | Sep 9, 2026 | R +2 | 600 | lv |
| Public Opinion Strategies | Jun 24, 2026 | R +4 | 600 | rv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 66%
GOP 34%
Race Details
- State lean
- D+15 This state leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Tina Kotek (inc.)
Republican Christine Drazan