Maryland's 1st Congressional District

98%

GOP

2%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +15.2·80% of simulations: R +23.8 to R +6.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +15.0

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +9.5

National Environment

current political climate

D +8.7

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +0.6

Forecasted margin

R +15.2

What Changes the Forecast

This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Z to A Research	Jul 27, 2026	R +13	482	lv
Z to A Research	Jul 27, 2026	D +1	482	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 2%

GOP 98%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Solid R Inside Elections Solid R Sabato Safe R

District lean

R+16 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Dan Schwartz

Republican Andy Harris (inc.)