Maryland Governor
100%
Dem
0%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +36.0·80% of simulations: D +26.7 to D +45.4
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
D +25.3
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.3
National Environment
current political climate
D +4.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +4.9
Forecasted margin
D +36.0
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC Institute of Politics | Sep 27, 2026 | D +27 | 776 | lv |
| Zenith Research | Aug 3, 2026 | D +27 | 800 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- State lean
- D+31 This is a safe Democrat state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Wes Moore (inc.)
Republican Dan Cox