Maryland's 5th Congressional District
100%
Dem
0%GOP
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +33.7·80% of simulations: D +24.1 to D +43.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +31.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +4.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.1
Forecasted margin
D +33.7
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 100%
GOP 0%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+34 This is a safe Democrat district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Adrian Boafo
Republican Chris Chaffee
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.