Maryland's 2nd Congressional District
99%
Dem
1%GOP
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +27.5·80% of simulations: D +16.3 to D +38.7
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +17.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +1.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.0
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.2
Forecasted margin
D +27.5
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 99%
GOP 1%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+19 This district leans strongly Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat John Olszewski (inc.)
Republican Dave Wallace