Nevada's 2nd Congressional District

96%

GOP

4%Dem

Solid R

— No change since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: R +8.3·80% of simulations: R +14.0 to R +2.5

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +12.2

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +7.7

National Environment

current political climate

D +9.7

Polls

recent state and district polling

D +1.9

Forecasted margin

R +8.3

What Changes the Forecast

The polls and fundamentals are picking a fight. More polling should tell us which one to believe.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
GBAO	Sep 3, 2026	D +1	500	lv
Strategies 360	Aug 26, 2026	R +3	400	lv
Wedgewood Polls	Jul 12, 2026	D +2	350	lv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 4%

GOP 96%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely R Inside Elections Likely R Sabato Likely R

District lean

R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson

Republican David Flippo

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is not seeking reelection.