Nevada's 4th Congressional District

95%

Dem

5%GOP

Likely D

▲ D +1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +15.2·80% of simulations: D +3.6 to D +26.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +3.5

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +1.6

National Environment

current political climate

D +13.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

Even

Forecasted margin

D +15.2

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 95%

GOP 5%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely D Inside Elections Likely D Sabato Likely D

District lean

D+4 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Democrat.

Candidates

Democrat Steven Horsford (inc.)

Republican Cody K. Whipple