Nevada Governor
58%
GOP
42%Dem
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +1.3·80% of simulations: R +9.7 to D +7.1
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +1.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +8.4
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
R +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +1.3
What Changes the Forecast
This could go either way. A small polling shift might flip the whole thing.
Polls
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 26, 2026 | R +2 | 708 | lv |
| Emerson College | Sep 8, 2026 | D +2 | 680 | lv |
| Tarrance Group | Jul 29, 2026 | R +7 | 550 | lv |
| Public Policy Polling | Jul 16, 2026 | Even | 558 | lv |
| Grassroots Targeting | Jul 16, 2026 | R +12 | 2,500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 42%
GOP 58%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+2 This is a highly competitive, evenly split state.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Aaron Ford
Republican Joe Lombardo (inc.)