Nevada's 3rd Congressional District

92%

Dem

8%GOP

Likely D

▲ D +2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +11.5·80% of simulations: D +1.1 to D +21.9

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

D +1.0

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +3.1

National Environment

current political climate

D +13.7

Polls

recent state and district polling

R +0.1

Forecasted margin

D +11.5

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 92%

GOP 8%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Likely D Inside Elections Lean D Sabato Lean D

District lean

D+1 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.

Candidates

Democrat Susie Lee (inc.)

Republican Marty O'Donnell