Arizona's 1st Congressional District

75%

Dem

25%GOP

Lean D

▲ R +1% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +5.5·80% of simulations: R +5.6 to D +16.7

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +1.8

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +5.6

National Environment

current political climate

D +13.4

Polls

recent state and district polling

R +0.5

Forecasted margin

D +5.5

What Changes the Forecast

We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.

Polls

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs	Oct 1, 2026	D +3	400	rv

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.

Dem 75%

GOP 25%

Race Details

Expert ratings

Cook Lean D Inside Elections Tossup Sabato Tossup

District lean

R+2 This is a competitive district that leans slightly Republican.

Candidates

Democrat Amish Shah

Republican Thomas Feely

Seat context

Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of Arizona.