Arizona's 6th Congressional District

61%

Dem

39%GOP

Lean D

▲ D +2% since last week

Range of Outcomes

Median outcome: D +2.0·80% of simulations: R +9.2 to D +13.2

How We Got This

Partisan Lean

how the seat votes compared with the nation

R +0.5

Fundamentals

candidates, fundraising, experts

R +3.8

National Environment

current political climate

D +6.3

Polls

recent state and district polling

Even

Forecasted margin

D +2.0

Polls

Polls (4)

Race polls
Pollster	Date	Margin	N	Sample
Normington, Petts & Associates	Jun 11, 2026	D +2	500	lv
Ragnar Research Partners	Mar 14, 2026	D +1	400	lv
Ragnar Research Partners	Mar 14, 2026	D +3	400	lv
Public Policy Polling	Oct 15, 2025	D +1	581	rv

What Changes the Forecast

Some high quality polling would significantly sharpen this forecast.

Forecast Over Time

Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time

Dem 61%

GOP 39%

Race Details