Arizona's 6th Congressional District
73%
Dem
27%GOP
▲ R +6% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +5.0·80% of simulations: R +6.1 to D +16.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +0.5
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +7.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +13.5
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +5.1
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | Jun 11, 2026 | D +2 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 73%
GOP 27%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+1 This is a highly competitive, evenly split district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Joanna Mendoza
Republican Juan Ciscomani (inc.)