Arizona Governor
82%
Dem
18%GOP
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +5.8·80% of simulations: R +2.6 to D +14.3
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the state votes compared with the nation
R +3.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.8
National Environment
current political climate
D +8.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +2.5
Forecasted margin
D +5.9
What Changes the Forecast
The national mood is doing most of the work. A big shift or some new polling might move it.
Polls
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NextGenP | Aug 19, 2026 | D +2 | 1,378 | rv |
| HighGround | Aug 18, 2026 | D +15 | 400 | lv |
| Quantus Insights | Aug 17, 2026 | D +6 | 780 | lv |
| Kreate Strategies | Aug 16, 2026 | D +5 | 900 | lv |
| Stealth Analytics | Aug 13, 2026 | D +5 | 530 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 82%
GOP 18%
Race Details
- State lean
- R+4 This is a competitive state that leans slightly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Katie Hobbs (inc.)
Republican Andy Biggs