Arizona's 2nd Congressional District
81%
GOP
19%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +7.5·80% of simulations: R +18.9 to D +3.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +12.1
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +5.7
National Environment
current political climate
D +9.6
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.7
Forecasted margin
R +7.5
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | Margin | N | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | Aug 24, 2026 | R +2 | 500 | lv |
| GBAO | Jun 15, 2026 | R +3 | 500 | lv |
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 19%
GOP 81%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+13 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Jonathan Nez
Republican Eli Crane (inc.)