Arizona's 4th Congressional District
97%
Dem
3%GOP
▲ R +1% since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: D +21.8·80% of simulations: D +8.3 to D +35.2
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
D +7.0
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
D +2.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +11.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
Even
Forecasted margin
D +21.8
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 97%
GOP 3%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- D+8 This district leans Democrat.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Greg Stanton (inc.)
Republican Zuhdi Jasser