Arizona's 5th Congressional District
89%
GOP
11%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +16.4·80% of simulations: R +33.5 to D +0.8
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +17.6
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +6.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +7.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.3
Forecasted margin
R +16.3
What Changes the Forecast
We're mostly flying blind here. At this point, anything helps.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 11%
GOP 89%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+19 This district leans strongly Republican.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Elizabeth Lee
Republican Mark Lamb
- Seat context
- Open seat. The incumbent is running for governor of Arizona.