Arizona's 9th Congressional District
98%
GOP
2%Dem
— No change since last week
Range of Outcomes
Median outcome: R +21.8·80% of simulations: R +34.1 to R +9.5
How We Got This
Partisan Lean
how the seat votes compared with the nation
R +27.4
Fundamentals
candidates, fundraising, experts
R +1.9
National Environment
current political climate
D +6.9
Polls
recent state and district polling
D +0.6
Forecasted margin
R +21.8
What Changes the Forecast
This race needs a plot twist. It would take a sustained, race-specific shift to move the forecast.
Polls
No district-level polling available. Forecast relies on fundamentals and expert ratings.
Forecast Over Time
Forecast Over Time
Dem (blue) and GOP (red) win probability over time.
Dem 2%
GOP 98%
Race Details
- Expert ratings
- District lean
- R+30 This is a safe Republican district.
- Candidates
-
Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky
Republican Paul Gosar (inc.)